How Long Will I Live With COPD?
Background Despite COPD being a leading cause of death, estimates of life expectancy are lacking. Patients in my practice often ask, “How much longer do I have to live.”
Objective To determine whether COPD is associated wit lower life expectancy.
Surya P. Bhatt, M.D. MSPH, Professor of Medicine, UAB
Study Dr. Surya P. Bhatt and colleagues at the University of Alabama in Birmingham (UAB) analyzed information from eight general population groups available from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute. Participants were 17 to 98 years of age, enrolled from 1983 to 2011, and followed through 2020.
COPD was defined by a standard criterion (FEV1/FVC < 0.70) for airflow obstruction based on breathing (pulmonary function) tests. Stages of disease were based on Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) recommendations.
The study was published in the May 2026 issue of JAMA Internal Medicine, volume 186, pages 852-860.
Results Of 45,886, COPD was present in 8,058 (17.6%) participants. In age-adjusted models, mean life expectancy for an individual 65 years of age was 21.5 years without COPD.
GOLD Stage (FEV1 % predicted) Mean Life Expectancy
1 > 80 20.0 yrs (95% Confidence, 19.7 - 20.4)
2 50 - 79 16.4 yrs (95% Confidence, 16.1 - 16.8)
3 30 - 49 13.1 yrs (95% Confidence, 12.5 - 13.8)
4 < 30 10.7 yrs (95% Confieence, 8.9 - 12.6)
The decreases in mean life expectancy for those with COPD were the same for those who never smoked (estimated to be 24% of those with COPD in the United States) compared with those who smoked.
Conclusions In this study, COPD was associated with lower life expectancy including in adults who never smoked.
Crystal ball
My Comments No one has a crystal ball to predict the future. Each person is an individual and on a unique journey. However, the values for life expectancy in this study provide general information and reflect averages for someone 65 years of age with COPD according to their lung function (FEV1 percent predicted).
As Dr. Bhatt stated, “We need therapies that meaningfully improve survival in COPD.” Current treatments that improve survival in those with COPD include smoking cessation, oxygen, and lung volume reduction in select patients.
Probably more important to consider is a person’s health span which reflects the length of time in one's life during which an individual is in reasonably good health.